Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 4.462711 5.224202 6.065624 7.062832 8.210881 9.489588 11.020179
2025-09-28 3.209255 4.211542 5.438413 7.043768 9.081395 11.573198 14.842330
2025-10-05 2.676662 3.859318 5.433253 7.664013 10.724108 14.751263 20.424740
2025-10-12 2.197850 3.438943 5.214166 7.907710 11.852895 17.372938 25.621605
2025-10-19 1.853356 3.117146 5.042957 8.143480 12.948528 20.032770 31.160746
2025-10-26 1.550286 2.786447 4.782323 8.173088 13.701500 22.241521 36.262863
2025-11-02 1.265589 2.423020 4.396833 7.923611 13.952071 23.675089 40.301025
2025-11-09 1.020282 2.075750 3.972395 7.527691 13.881986 24.553341 43.505398
2025-11-16 0.861355 1.853819 3.725295 7.390666 14.212533 26.095110 47.928865
2025-11-23 0.739907 1.679748 3.534494 7.319701 14.635852 27.818227 52.813340
2025-11-30 0.680994 1.621542 3.554344 7.645078 15.818926 30.989604 60.553144
2025-12-07 0.601520 1.503406 3.434166 7.672950 16.428931 33.166604 66.681606
2025-12-14 0.529438 1.390650 3.312969 7.693038 17.049803 35.474206 73.383418
2025-12-21 0.465993 1.285890 3.193096 7.700436 17.650397 37.816432 80.417242
2025-12-28 0.456186 1.311540 3.370384 8.384806 19.756186 43.352587 94.280794
2026-01-04 0.420104 1.262300 3.365066 8.653588 20.994344 47.248569 105.209358
2026-01-11 0.387276 1.214893 3.356122 8.911350 22.236413 51.270868 116.771292
2026-01-18 0.346896 1.137723 3.260016 8.944036 22.965991 54.269636 126.452010
2026-01-25 0.298291 1.025616 3.054426 8.672874 22.946196 55.627740 132.721288
2026-02-01 0.250437 0.904276 2.802315 8.242223 22.482991 55.940603 136.706863
2026-02-08 0.219533 0.829203 2.664846 8.093146 22.695682 57.810867 144.358384
2026-02-15 0.194942 0.769099 2.559677 8.015929 23.080020 60.115601 153.212640
2026-02-22 0.185772 0.760245 2.605314 8.369968 24.632682 65.354197 169.395491